pipeline-health

Files (3)

• SKILL.md
• routing.yaml · evals/
• pipeline-health.skill

SKILL.md (first lines)

# pipeline-health

## Core Philosophy
A sales pipeline is not an aspirational wishlist to impress venture capitalists or board members. A pipeline is a high-precision mathematical forecasting model. Sales pipeline failure occurs when reps hoard stale, dead deals in "Stage 2" to maintain an inflated quota coverage ratio. High-velocity revenue organizations maintain absolute pipeline hygiene through rigorous deal velocity metrics, stage exit criteria, and automatic deal decay purging.

---

## 4-Step Pipeline Health Audit & Diagnostics

### Step 1: Pipeline Velocity & Health Metrics
1. **The Master Pipeline Velocity Equation**:
   $$V = rac{N  imes W  imes S}{L}$$
   - Where:
     - $N$ = Number of qualified active opportunities in pipeline.
     - $W$ = Win rate percentage (Closed-Won / Total Closed Opportunities).
     - $S$ = Average Deal Size / ACV ($).
     - $L$ = Average Sales Cycle Length (in days from MQL to Closed-Won).
   - *Interpretation*: Velocity measures the daily dollar amount of revenue generated by the pipeline.
2. **Coverage Ratio Health**:
   - Healthy B2B SaaS requires **3.5x to 4.5x** pipeline coverage of quarterly quota.
   - Coverage $> 6text{x}$ usually indicates pipeline hoarding of dead deals.
   - Coverage $< 3text{x}$ signals an impending revenue shortfall in 2 quarters.

### Step 2: Stage Conversion Benchmarks & Funnel Leak Detection
1. **Standard B2B SaaS Conversion Benchmarks**:
   - *Stage 1 (Discovery / Qualified)* $ o$ *Stage 2 (Technical Validation / Demo)*: 50–60%.
   - *Stage 2 (Validation)* $ o$ *Stage 3 (Proposal / Commercials)*: 60–70%.
   - *Stage 3 (Proposal)* $ o$ *Stage 4 (Legal & Procurement)*: 70–80%.
   - *Stage 4 (Legal)* $ o$ *Stage 5 (Closed-Won)*: 85–90%.
2. **Leak Detection**:
   - If Stage 1 $ o$ 2 drops below 40%: Discovery qualification is weak (reps passing bad fit leads).
   - If Stage 3 $ o$ 4 drops below 50%: Pricing model or business case is failing to convince executive buyers.

### Step 3: Deal Hygiene & Decay Rules (Zombie Deal Purge)
1. **The Stale Deal Criteria**:
   - Mark a deal as **Stale / Zombie** if:
     - No recorded outbound or inbound activity for $> 14$ consecutive days.
     - Close date has been pushed into the next month/quarter more than 2 times.
     - Time spent in current stage exceeds $1.5text{x}$ the historical average stage duration.
2. **The Purge Protocol**:
   - Automatically move zombie deals to "Closed-Lost: Stalled Inactivity". Require VP of Sales override to restore.

### Step 4: Weighted Pipeline Forecasting Discipline
1. **Forecasting Tiers**:
   - *Commit*: Deals with signed verbal agreement, approved legal redlines, scheduled signature date ($\ge 90\%$ probability).
   - *Best Case*: Qualified deals in late-stage validation with executive sponsorship ($\ge 60\%$ probability).
   - *Pipeline*: All other active, qualified opportunities ($\ge 25\%$ probability).

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## Deliverable Format: Pipeline Health Audit Report (`PIPELINE-AUDIT.md`)

```markdown
# Sales Pipeline Health & Velocity Audit: [Quarter / Year]

## 1. Executive Summary & Core Equations
- **Total Pipeline ARR**: [$X,XXX,XXX]
- **Quarterly Quota Target**: [$XXX,XXX]
- **Active Coverage Ratio**: [X.Xx] (Benchmark: 3.5x - 4.5x)
- **Pipeline Velocity**: **[$X,XXX / day]**

## 2. Funnel Conversion & Leak Diagnostics
| Stage Transition | Target Conversion | Actual Conversion | Status | Diagnostic Finding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery -> Validation | 55% | 38% | Leak | Reps qualifying unqualified SMB leads |
| Validation -> Proposal | 65% | 68% | Healthy | Strong technical POC pass rate |
| Proposal -> Legal | 75% | 72% | Healthy | Pricing generally accepted |
| Legal -> Closed-Won | 85% | 61% | Leak | Lengthy security review bottlenecks |

## 3. Zombie Deal Purge Register
| Deal Name | Account Executive | Stage | Days Inactive | Push Count | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Deal Alpha] | [Rep A] | Proposal | 34 days | 3 pushes | Close-Lost (Stale) |
| [Deal Beta] | [Rep B] | Demo | 22 days | 2 pushes | Re-assign or purge |

## 4. Quarter-End Revenue Forecast
- **Weighted Forecast**: [$XXX,XXX]
- **Commit Forecast**: [$XXX,XXX]
- **Gap to Quota Target**: [+$XX,XXX / -$XX,XXX]
```

---

## Worked Example: B2B SaaS Mid-Quarter Pipeline Audit

- **Audit Findings**: Pipeline appeared healthy at 5.2x coverage ($2.6M against $500k quota).
- **Hygiene Scrub**: Deep audit revealed $1.1M of the pipeline consisted of deals pushed across 3 consecutive quarters with zero client responses in 30 days.
- **Action**: Purged $1.1M in dead deals, adjusting real coverage to 3.0x. Initiated an immediate SDR outbound campaign to build fresh pipeline for the following quarter.
- **Result**: Forecast accuracy improved from 45% variance to within 4% of actual closed revenue.

---

## Verification Checklist

- [ ] Pipeline velocity is calculated using verified historical win rates and cycle lengths.
- [ ] Quota coverage ratio falls within the healthy 3.5x–4.5x corridor.
- [ ] Deals inactive for $> 14$ days are flagged and triaged.
- [ ] Pushed close dates are tracked and restricted to a maximum of 2 slips.
- [ ] Closed-Lost reasons are categorized into mandatory structured fields.

---

## Anti-Patterns

- **Happy Ears Forecasting**: Believing a prospect who says "we love this" while legal redlines remain untouched for 6 weeks.
- **Pipeline Hoarding**: Allowing reps to keep dead opportunities open to hide performance deficiencies.
- **Treating All Stages Equally**: Applying an arbitrary flat 50% probability across all pipeline stages.

From poorvith-mp/skills-sales, MIT.

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