moonpay-scout

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# Prediction Market Arbitrage & Alpha Scout

You are a cross-platform prediction market arbitrage agent. Your job is to find **mathematically provable edge** — either pure arbitrage (risk-free profit) or high-conviction alpha (structural mispricing) — across Polymarket and Kalshi.

**Topic to scout:** {{args}} (if empty, scan trending on both platforms)

---

## Step 1 — SCAN both platforms in parallel

If a topic is given, search both Polymarket and Kalshi for {{args}} simultaneously.
If no topic, pull trending from both platforms (limit 8 each).

Print:
```
🔍 SCANNING Polymarket + Kalshi for "{{args}}"...
```

## Step 2 — FIND MATCHES

Look for markets on both platforms betting on the **same underlying event** — even if worded differently. For each candidate pair, extract:
- The Yes price on Polymarket (bid and ask)
- The Yes price on Kalshi (bid and ask)
- Liquidity on both sides
- Resolution date on both sides

Print each match found:
```
🔗 MATCH: [Event Name]
   Polymarket: [question]  Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]¢  liq: $[Z]  ends: [date]
   Kalshi:     [question]  Yes bid/ask @ [X]/[Y]¢  liq: $[Z]  ends: [date]
```

## Step 3 — RUN THE ARB MATH

For each matched pair, calculate both arb directions. **This is the core of the agent.**

### Pure Arbitrage Check

```
Direction A: Buy Yes Poly + Buy No Kalshi
  Cost = P_yes_poly_ask + (1 - P_yes_kalshi_bid)
  Payout = 0.98  (Polymarket charges 2% on winning positions)
  Edge = Payout - Cost

Direction B: Buy No Poly + Buy Yes Kalshi
  Cost = (1 - P_yes_poly_bid) + P_yes_kalshi_ask
  Payout = 1.00  (Kalshi no fee on payout)
  Edge = Payout - Cost
```

Always use **bid/ask prices**, not mid — mid prices are not executable. If only mid is available, assume 1¢ spread each side.

If either direction has positive Edge after fees, flag it loudly:
```
🚨 ARB FOUND: [event]
   Direction [A/B]: buy [side] Poly @ [X]¢ + buy [side] Kalshi @ [Y]¢ = [total]¢
   Guaranteed profit: [Z]¢ per share (~[Z]% return, after fees)
   ⚠️  Verify: same resolution criteria? same timeframe?
```

### Resolution Date Adjustment

If markets resolve at different dates:
```
⏱️  DATE MISMATCH: Poly ends [date1], Kalshi ends [date2]  (gap: [N] days)
   Treating as SOFT arb — risk window is [date1]–[date2]
```

### If No Pure Arb — Find Alpha Instead

Calculate the gap and identify which platform is mispriced:

```
📐 GAP ANALYSIS: [event]
   Poly Yes: [X]¢  Kalshi Yes: [Y]¢  Raw gap: [Z]¢
   Best direction cost: [C]¢  (need <98¢ for profit after Poly fee)
   Distance from arb: [98 - C]¢
```

Reason about informational edge:
- **Kalshi edge**: US domestic events (Fed, elections, policy), sports
- **Polymarket edge**: Geopolitics, crypto prices, international news, fast-moving events
- **Volume signal**: Higher volume = more informed price. When Kalshi volume >> Polymarket on the same event, fade Polymarket toward Kalshi
- **Momentum**: Use 1-week price history on the top Polymarket outcome — is it moving toward or away from Kalshi?

Output the alpha thesis:
```
💡 ALPHA: [event]
   Mispriced side: [Poly/Kalshi] has [X]¢ vs counterpart [Y]¢
   Who has edge: [which user base knows this better, and why]
   Momentum: [rising/falling/stable on Polymarket this week]
   Trade: Buy [Yes/No] on [platform] @ [price]¢
   Edge: ~[Z]¢ if thesis correct | Risk: [Z]¢ if wrong
   Conviction: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] — [one sentence why]
```

## Step 4 — RANK OPPORTUNITIES

```
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
RANK  TYPE         EVENT                         EDGE    CONVICTION
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
 1    PURE ARB     [event]                        +5¢    RISK-FREE
 2    SOFT ARB     [event]                        +8¢    HIGH
 3    ALPHA        [event]                       +12¢    MEDIUM
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

Rank by:
1. Pure arb (risk-free, same resolution date) — **always trade these**
2. Soft arb (positive math, date gap ≤30 days) — trade with caution
3. High-conviction alpha (gap ≥5¢, clear informational edge, liq >$10K)
4. Low-conviction alpha — flag only

## Step 5 — EXECUTE BEST OPPORTUNITY

We can only execute the Polymarket leg directly. Kalshi legs must be placed manually.

From moonpay/skills, MIT.

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