financial-model

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• SKILL.md

SKILL.md (first lines)

# 📈 Financial Model — Business Financial Projections
*Build monthly revenue projections, unit economics, break-even analysis, scenario modeling, and cash flow forecasts with key metrics dashboards.*

## Activation

When this skill activates, output:

`📈 Financial Model — Building your financial projections...`

| Context | Status |
|---------|--------|
| **User says "financial model", "projections", "revenue forecast"** | ACTIVE |
| **User wants unit economics, break-even, or cash flow analysis** | ACTIVE |
| **User mentions MRR, churn, CAC, LTV, or runway** | ACTIVE |
| **User wants to set pricing (not model revenue)** | DORMANT — see pricing-strategy |
| **User wants to generate an invoice** | DORMANT — see invoice-generator |
| **User wants to scope an MVP (budget is secondary)** | DORMANT — see mvp-scoper |

## Protocol

### Step 1: Gather Inputs

Ask the user for:
- **Business type**: SaaS, e-commerce, service business, marketplace, info product?
- **Revenue streams**: How do you make money? (subscriptions, one-time sales, usage fees, ads)
- **Pricing**: What do you charge? (per plan, per unit, per transaction)
- **Current metrics** (if existing): Current MRR, customer count, churn rate
- **Cost structure**: Major expenses (team, hosting, tools, marketing)
- **Growth assumptions**: How will you acquire customers? Expected growth rate?
- **Funding status**: Bootstrapped, pre-seed, seed, Series A?

### Step 2: Build Monthly Revenue Projections (12 Months)

**SaaS / Subscription Model:**

```
── MONTHLY REVENUE PROJECTION ─────────────

         M1     M2     M3     M4     M5     M6     M7     M8     M9     M10    M11    M12
New       [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]
Churned  -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]   -[n]
Active    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]    [n]
ARPU     $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]
MRR      $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]
ARR      $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]   $[x]
```

**Revenue formulas:**
- New customers = marketing spend / CAC (or organic growth rate)
- Churned customers = previous active × monthly churn rate
- Active customers = previous active + new − churned
- MRR = active customers × ARPU
- ARR = MRR × 12

**E-commerce / Transactional Model:**
```
Orders/mo × Average Order Value = Gross Revenue
Gross Revenue − Returns − Refunds = Net Revenue
```

**Service Business:**
```
Billable Hours × Hourly Rate = Revenue
— OR —
Active Clients × Monthly Retainer = Revenue
```

### Step 3: Monthly Expense Projections

```
── MONTHLY EXPENSES ───────────────────────

Category          M1      M2      M3      ...    M12     Type
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
PEOPLE
  Founder salary  $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed
  Engineer #1     $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed
  Contractor      $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Variable
  Benefits/tax    $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    % of salary

INFRASTRUCTURE
  Hosting         $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Scales w/ usage
  SaaS tools      $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed (step up)
  Domain/SSL      $[x]    —       —       ...    —       Annual

MARKETING
  Paid ads        $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Variable
  Content         $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed
  Tools           $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed

OPERATIONS
  Legal/accounting $[x]   $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed
  Insurance       $[x]    —       —       ...    —       Annual
  Office/misc     $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]    Fixed

──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TOTAL EXPENSES    $[x]    $[x]    $[x]    ...    $[x]
```

**Expense scaling rules:**
- People: Step function — add hires at specific months
- Hosting: Linear with customer count (estimate $/customer/mo)
- Marketing: Set as % of revenue or fixed budget
- SaaS tools: Step up at tier thresholds

### Step 4: Unit Economics

```
── UNIT ECONOMICS ─────────────────────────

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC):
  Total marketing spend / New customers acquired
  CAC = $[amount]

Lifetime Value (LTV):
  ARPU × (1 / monthly churn rate)
  LTV = $[ARPU] × [months] = $[amount]

  — OR detailed —

From jtucker9/mystuff, MIT.

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