pymc-bayesian-modeling

Files (8)

• SKILL.md
• hierarchical_model_template.py · assets/
• linear_regression_template.py · assets/
• distributions.md · references/
• sampling_inference.md · references/
• workflows.md · references/
• model_comparison.py · scripts/
• model_diagnostics.py · scripts/

SKILL.md (first lines)

# PyMC Bayesian Modeling

## Routing Boundary

Use this skill only for PyMC, probabilistic programming, Bayesian hierarchical models, NUTS/MCMC sampling, posterior predictive checks, and PyMC model diagnostics. Do not use it for generic regression, scikit-learn modeling, causal analysis, pymoo optimization, or materials-science prompts.

## Overview

PyMC is a Python library for Bayesian modeling and probabilistic programming. Build, fit, validate, and compare Bayesian models using PyMC's modern API (version 5.x+), including hierarchical models, MCMC sampling (NUTS), variational inference, and model comparison (LOO, WAIC).

## When to Use This Skill

This skill should be used when:
- Building Bayesian models (linear/logistic regression, hierarchical models, time series, etc.)
- Performing MCMC sampling or variational inference
- Conducting prior/posterior predictive checks
- Diagnosing sampling issues (divergences, convergence, ESS)
- Comparing multiple models using information criteria (LOO, WAIC)
- Implementing uncertainty quantification through Bayesian methods
- Working with hierarchical/multilevel data structures
- Handling missing data or measurement error in a principled way

## Standard Bayesian Workflow

Follow this workflow for building and validating Bayesian models:

### 1. Data Preparation

```python
import pymc as pm
import arviz as az
import numpy as np

# Load and prepare data
X = ...  # Predictors
y = ...  # Outcomes

# Standardize predictors for better sampling
X_mean = X.mean(axis=0)
X_std = X.std(axis=0)
X_scaled = (X - X_mean) / X_std
```

**Key practices:**
- Standardize continuous predictors (improves sampling efficiency)
- Center outcomes when possible
- Handle missing data explicitly (treat as parameters)
- Use named dimensions with `coords` for clarity

### 2. Model Building

```python
coords = {
    'predictors': ['var1', 'var2', 'var3'],
    'obs_id': np.arange(len(y))
}

with pm.Model(coords=coords) as model:
    # Priors
    alpha = pm.Normal('alpha', mu=0, sigma=1)
    beta = pm.Normal('beta', mu=0, sigma=1, dims='predictors')
    sigma = pm.HalfNormal('sigma', sigma=1)

    # Linear predictor
    mu = alpha + pm.math.dot(X_scaled, beta)

    # Likelihood
    y_obs = pm.Normal('y_obs', mu=mu, sigma=sigma, observed=y, dims='obs_id')
```

**Key practices:**
- Use weakly informative priors (not flat priors)
- Use `HalfNormal` or `Exponential` for scale parameters
- Use named dimensions (`dims`) instead of `shape` when possible
- Use `pm.Data()` for values that will be updated for predictions

### 3. Prior Predictive Check

**Always validate priors before fitting:**

```python
with model:
    prior_pred = pm.sample_prior_predictive(samples=1000, random_seed=42)

# Visualize
az.plot_ppc(prior_pred, group='prior')
```

**Check:**
- Do prior predictions span reasonable values?
- Are extreme values plausible given domain knowledge?
- If priors generate implausible data, adjust and re-check

### 4. Fit Model

```python
with model:
    # Optional: Quick exploration with ADVI
    # approx = pm.fit(n=20000)

    # Full MCMC inference
    idata = pm.sample(
        draws=2000,
        tune=1000,
        chains=4,
        target_accept=0.9,
        random_seed=42,
        idata_kwargs={'log_likelihood': True}  # For model comparison
    )
```

**Key parameters:**
- `draws=2000`: Number of samples per chain
- `tune=1000`: Warmup samples (discarded)
- `chains=4`: Run 4 chains for convergence checking
- `target_accept=0.9`: Higher for difficult posteriors (0.95-0.99)
- Include `log_likelihood=True` for model comparison

### 5. Check Diagnostics

From foryourhealth111-pixel/Vibe-Skills, Apache-2.0.

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