fsi-fa-cmd-dcf

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• SKILL.md

SKILL.md (first lines)

# DCF Valuation Command

Build an institutional-quality DCF model that uses comparable company analysis to inform valuation ranges.

## Workflow

### Step 1: Gather Company Information

If a company name or ticker is provided, use it. Otherwise ask:
- "What company would you like to value?"

### Step 2: Run Comparable Company Analysis

**First, load the comps-analysis skill** to build trading comps:

Use `skill: "comps-analysis"` to:
1. Identify 4-6 comparable public companies
2. Pull operating metrics (Revenue, EBITDA, margins, growth)
3. Pull valuation multiples (EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, P/E)
4. Calculate statistical summary (median, 25th/75th percentiles)

**Key outputs to capture from comps:**
- Median EV/EBITDA multiple → informs terminal value exit multiple
- Median EV/Revenue multiple → sanity check on DCF output
- Peer growth rates → benchmark for revenue projections
- Peer margins → benchmark for margin assumptions

### Step 3: Build DCF Model

**Load the dcf-model skill** to construct the valuation:

Use `skill: "dcf-model"` to:
1. Gather historical financials and market data
2. Build revenue projections (Bear/Base/Bull cases)
3. Model operating expenses and FCF
4. Calculate WACC using CAPM
5. Discount cash flows and calculate terminal value
6. Bridge to equity value and implied share price

**Use comps to inform DCF assumptions:**

| Comps Output | DCF Input |
|--------------|-----------|
| Peer median EV/EBITDA | Terminal exit multiple range |
| Peer 25th-75th EV/EBITDA | Sensitivity analysis range |
| Peer median growth rate | Benchmark for revenue assumptions |
| Peer median EBITDA margin | Target margin in terminal year |
| Peer median P/E | Cross-check implied P/E from DCF |

### Step 4: Cross-Check Valuation

After DCF is complete, validate:
1. **Implied EV/EBITDA** from DCF vs peer median
   - If DCF implies 25x but peers trade at 12x, investigate why
2. **Implied P/E** from DCF vs peer median
3. **Terminal value as % of EV** (should be 50-70%)
4. **Implied growth** embedded in valuation vs peer growth rates

### Step 5: Deliver Output

Provide:
1. **Comps analysis spreadsheet** (.xlsx) with peer trading multiples
2. **DCF model** (.xlsx) with:
   - Bear/Base/Bull scenarios
   - Sensitivity tables (WACC vs Terminal Growth, etc.)
   - Valuation summary with implied upside/downside
3. **Summary** explaining:
   - Key valuation drivers
   - How comps informed the analysis
   - Risks and sensitivities to watch

## Example Output Summary

```
VALUATION SUMMARY: [Company] ([Ticker])

Comparable Companies Analysis:
- Peer Group: [List of 4-6 comps]
- Median EV/EBITDA: 12.5x (range: 10.2x - 15.8x)
- Median EV/Revenue: 3.2x (range: 2.1x - 4.5x)

DCF Valuation (Base Case):
- Implied Share Price: $XX.XX
- Current Price: $YY.YY
- Implied Upside: +XX%

Valuation Cross-Check:
- DCF Implied EV/EBITDA: 13.2x (vs peer median 12.5x)
- DCF Implied P/E: 22.4x (vs peer median 20.1x)
- Terminal Value: 62% of EV (within normal range)

Key Assumptions:
- Revenue CAGR: X% (vs peer median X%)
- Terminal EBITDA Margin: X% (vs peer median X%)
- WACC: X.X%
- Terminal Growth: X.X%
```

From d-wwei/openclaw-financial-services, Apache-2.0.

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