capacity-planner

Files (8)

• SKILL.md
• capacity_brief_template.md · assets/
• capacity_anti_patterns.md · references/
• ops_workforce_planning_canon.md · references/
• queueing_theory_canon.md · references/
• capacity_modeler.py · scripts/
• hiring_sequencer.py · scripts/
• utilization_analyzer.py · scripts/

SKILL.md (first lines)

# capacity-planner

Sizing tool for **ops teams that handle queued work** — Support, CX,
Customer Success, BizOps, IT ops, Finance ops. Built on Erlang-C
queueing theory, Little's Law, and the operational-leadership canon
(Fournier, Larson, Cleveland, Reinertsen). Deterministic, stdlib-only,
no LLM calls.

## Purpose

You are an ops leader sized 15 → 35 with no idea how the 35-person org
will actually behave at peak load. Or you are at 88% utilization and
SLA is starting to slip. Or you have a hiring budget approved and need
to sequence it across four quarters without burning out the existing
team. This skill answers those questions with arithmetic, not vibes.

It produces three artifacts:

1. **Capacity sizing** at 70/80/90% utilization against P50/P90/P99
   demand, with P(SLA breach) at each point and a SAFE/WATCH/AT_RISK/CRITICAL
   risk band.
2. **Utilization health** at the per-member traffic-light level plus a
   team verdict (HEALTHY/SQUEEZED/OVERLOADED/UNBALANCED).
3. **12-month quarterly hiring plan** accounting for ramp curves,
   attrition, QoQ demand growth, and span-of-control manager triggers.

## When to use

- **Annual ops capacity planning** (October-November for the following
  fiscal year).
- **Quarterly re-sizing** if demand changed >15% or attrition spiked.
- **Pre-budget defense** — the math that justifies the headcount ask
  to your CFO.
- **Diagnostic** when an ops team is missing SLA and you need to know
  whether it's a sizing problem, a process problem, or a bottleneck
  problem.
- **M&A / new-segment launch** modeling — sizing a new team or
  combined org.

## Workflow

1. **Intake demand**. Pull P50/P90/P99 daily ticket/case volume from
   your work system (Zendesk, Intercom, JSM, ServiceNow, Salesforce).
   If you only have averages, stop and pull the distribution. Single-
   point demand estimates are the most expensive anti-pattern in ops.
2. **Model throughput**. Run `capacity_modeler.py` with your demand,
   AHT, SLA target, current FTE, and shrinkage. Use `--profile` for
   your function (support / cx / bizops / finance-ops / it-ops). Read
   the 80%-utilization row — that's your sizing point.
3. **Flag utilization risk**. Run `utilization_analyzer.py` against
   your current team's actual utilization data. Anyone >85% sustained
   is a throughput-collapse risk per Reinertsen. Spread >30 percentage
   points across team means UNBALANCED — fix that before hiring.
4. **Sequence hiring**. Run `hiring_sequencer.py` with current FTE,
   target EOY, ramp time, attrition, and growth. It will front-load
   hires (Q1 35%, Q4 15%), apply ramp curves, and trigger a manager
   hire when span of control crosses 7 ICs/manager.
5. **Walk the Forcing-question library** (see below). One question at
   a time. Do not skip ahead. Answers must be written down before
   you commit the plan.

## Scripts

- `scripts/capacity_modeler.py` — Erlang-C sizing with shrinkage
  adjustment and P50/P90/P99 breach probabilities. `--profile`
  for industry defaults.
- `scripts/utilization_analyzer.py` — per-member traffic-light +
  team-level health verdict with variance detection.
- `scripts/hiring_sequencer.py` — 12-month quarterly plan with ramp,
  attrition, growth, max-hires-per-quarter constraint, and
  manager-trigger logic.

All three accept `--input <path>` (JSON), `--output {markdown,json}`,
`--sample` (built-in example), and `--help`. Stdlib only.

## Quick example

```bash
# Emits an Erlang-C capacity model (required headcount + P50/P90/P99 breach probabilities) for the built-in example
cd business-operations/skills/capacity-planner && python3 scripts/capacity_modeler.py --sample
```

## References

- `references/queueing_theory_canon.md` — Erlang, Little, Hopp &
  Spearman, Reinertsen, Kingman, Cleveland, ITIL, Armony et al. (8
  sources). The math.
- `references/ops_workforce_planning_canon.md` — Fournier, Larson,
  Google SRE Workbook, Frei, Lawler, Bersin, Gartner, Grove (8
  sources). The people factors.
- `references/capacity_anti_patterns.md` — 11 named anti-patterns
  with cited sources, tool guards, and the meta-discipline that
  Lencioni + Goldratt + Christensen impose. (8+ named sources.)

## Assets

- `assets/capacity_brief_template.md` — 20-minute fill-out template
  with JSON skeletons for all three tools and an output checklist.

## Assumptions

This skill assumes:

- Work is **queued** (tickets, cases, work items) — not project-style.
  If your team's work isn't queued, this is the wrong skill.
- Demand has a **stationary-enough distribution** within a quarter.
  Step-changes (new product launch, M&A, regulatory shift) require
  re-running mid-quarter.
- You have **at least 90 days of historical demand data** to compute
  P50/P90/P99. If not, generate the distribution from your sales /
  user-base forecast first.
- Service is **single-class** within a queue. If you have hard
  priority tiers (P1/P2/P3 with class-specific SLAs), model each as
  a separate queue and sum.
- **Channels are modeled coherently.** Multi-channel teams use the
  appropriate `--profile` with built-in shrinkage premium.

## Anti-patterns

From bughunt8/skills, MIT.

More from bughunt8/skills