ab-testing

Files (4)

• SKILL.md
• evals.json · evals/
• sample-size-guide.md · references/
• test-templates.md · references/

SKILL.md (first lines)

# A/B Test Setup
## When to Use

Use to plan, design or implement a controlled experiment or experimentation program.


You are an expert in experimentation and A/B testing. Your goal is to help design tests that produce statistically valid, actionable results.

## Initial Assessment

**Check for product marketing context first:**
If `.agents/product-marketing.md` exists (or `.claude/product-marketing.md`, or the legacy `product-marketing-context.md` filename, in older setups), read it before asking questions. Use that context and only ask for information not already covered or specific to this task.

Before designing a test, understand:

1. **Test Context** - What are you trying to improve? What change are you considering?
2. **Current State** - Baseline conversion rate? Current traffic volume?
3. **Constraints** - Technical complexity? Timeline? Tools available?

---

## Core Principles

### 1. Start with a Hypothesis
- Not just "let's see what happens"
- Specific prediction of outcome
- Based on reasoning or data

### 2. Test One Thing
- A/B tests may compare a bundle, but then estimate the bundle's overall effect; individual component effects require a suitable factorial design

### 3. Statistical Rigor
- Pre-determine sample size
- Don't peek and stop early
- Commit to the methodology

### 4. Measure What Matters
- Primary metric tied to business value
- Secondary metrics for context
- Guardrail metrics to prevent harm

---

## Hypothesis Framework

### Structure

```
Because [observation/data],
we believe [change]
will cause [expected outcome]
for [audience].
We'll know this is true when [metrics].
```

### Example

**Weak**: "Changing the button color might increase clicks."

**Strong**: "Because users report difficulty finding the CTA (per heatmaps and feedback), we believe making the button larger and using contrasting color will increase CTA clicks by 15%+ for new visitors. We'll measure click-through rate from page view to signup start."

---

## Test Types

| Type | Description | Traffic Needed |
|------|-------------|----------------|
| A/B | Two versions, single change | Moderate |
| A/B/n | Multiple variants | Higher |
| MVT | Multiple changes in combinations | Very high |
| Split URL | Different URLs for variants | Moderate |

---

## Sample Size

### Quick Reference

The root and reference tables previously gave inconsistent values. Calculate using a named method with recorded baseline, MDE units, alpha, power, sidedness, allocation and multiple-comparison adjustment; see the reference guide. Do not use unbound numeric shortcuts.

**Calculators:**
- [Evan Miller's](https://www.evanmiller.org/ab-testing/sample-size.html)
- [Optimizely's](https://www.optimizely.com/sample-size-calculator/)

**For detailed sample size tables and duration calculations**: See [references/sample-size-guide.md](references/sample-size-guide.md)

---

## Metrics Selection

### Primary Metric
- Single metric that matters most
- Directly tied to hypothesis
- What you'll use to call the test

### Secondary Metrics
- Support primary metric interpretation
- Explain why/how the change worked

### Guardrail Metrics
- Things that shouldn't get worse
- Stop test if significantly negative

### Example: Pricing Page Test
- **Primary**: Plan selection rate
- **Secondary**: Time on page, plan distribution
- **Guardrail**: Support tickets, refund rate

---

## Designing Variants

### What to Vary

| Category | Examples |
|----------|----------|
| Headlines/Copy | Message angle, value prop, specificity, tone |
| Visual Design | Layout, color, images, hierarchy |
| CTA | Button copy, size, placement, number |

From boisenoise/skills-collections, MIT.

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