OneQAZ Trading Intelligence

Purpose: Losing paper trades only (P&L < 0). Convenience wrapper around get_trade_history(max_pnl=-0.01). Triggers (casual questions too): "어디서 잃었어?", "show me the losses", "what went wrong?", "worst trades?", "손실 난 거래 뭐야?". When to call: failure-pattern review. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: analyze_trades for breakdowns. Caveats: paper-trading data only.

Purpose: Lag-aware causal graph between macro categories (bonds / vix / forex / credit / inflation / liquidity / commodities). Returns only statistically significant lead-lag pairs (e.g. forex -> vix 7d rho=-0.41). Triggers (casual questions too): "what happens to VIX when bonds move?", "금리 오르면 뭐가 움직여?", "which macro leads which?", "거시 지표끼리 인과관계 있어?", "does the dollar lead volatility?". When to call: assess pre-emptive cross-category impact after a macro event. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_macro_influence_map for category -> market impact. Caveats: Pearson-based; requir…

Use when the question is about a macro factor — rates and bonds, the dollar and FX, VIX, credit, liquidity, inflation, commodities or energy — and which markets or stocks it is linked to. Returns headline claims, the macro category's regime state per interval and its instruments, macro categories with tracked lead-lag links to it, the markets the engine assumes it affects (tuned priors), symbols its instruments lead, topic-tagged news, and gaps. Not for one stock (use get_symbol_context) or a whole market (use get_market_context). Provides regime, signal-score and linkage context with sample s…

Purpose: Expose OneQAZ's pre-defined causal hypothesis map. Each macro category (bonds, forex, vix, credit, liquidity, inflation, commodities, energy) is mapped to a target market with lag_hours + sensitivity (static prior) and an `effective` block with the value the engine actually uses (backtest_tuning when the cell passes the tuning gate). Triggers (casual questions too): "how do rates affect crypto?", "금리가 코인에 어떻게 영향 줘?", "what's your causal model?", "예측 논리가 뭐야?", "which macro drives which market?". When to call: when an AI wants to understand WHY we make certain predic…

Use when the question is about a whole market (KR, US, CRYPTO) — its structure regime and how its groups are positioned. Returns headline claims, the market's structure and global macro regime, the macro categories assumed to affect it (with tuned lags), its groups ordered by distance from the middle regime stage, market-tagged news, and gaps. Not for one sector or stock (use get_group_context or get_symbol_context). Provides regime, signal-score and linkage context with sample sizes and measured hit rates; every link carries its evidence and every empty section is listed in gaps. Not a real-t…

Purpose: Monthly accuracy time series per (category, target_market, lag_bucket). Use to verify sustained performance and detect recent degradation. Triggers (casual questions too): "is accuracy improving?", "적중률이 좋아지고 있어?", "monthly performance trend?", "최근에 예측 성능 떨어졌어?", "show accuracy over time". When to call: after get_prediction_accuracy and get_backtest_tuning_state — completes the trust chain. Prerequisites: get_prediction_accuracy recommended. Next steps: none (trust chain complete). Caveats: excludes the 'all' month aggregate; empty when backtest_results is unpopulated.

UNVERIFIED — methodology under audit. Do not cite as evidence of predictive capability. Purpose: Counts of news items per internal label the pipeline assigns. ANTICIPATED = the item matched a scheduled/calendar event. SURPRISE_WITH_PRECURSOR = the item was flagged by the cascade-anomaly heuristic (macro -> ETF -> stock). SURPRISE = neither matched. These are pipeline labels, not validated classifications; the labelling rule and its lead/anticipation metrics are under audit and withheld here. Triggers: "how many news items per category this week?", "뉴스 라벨 분포 어때?", "how …

Use when the question is about a specific news item or a news keyword or event (FOMC, 반도체, tariff) — which markets, symbols and topics it is tagged with. Returns headline claims, the item (or keyword match counts), its title-similarity cluster, the market, symbol and topic tags assigned by the collection pipeline (counted across matches for a keyword), the matching items, and gaps. Not for market impact estimates or article text (tags are pipeline rules, not measured impact). Provides regime, signal-score and linkage context with sample sizes and measured hit rates; every link carries its evid…

UNVERIFIED — methodology under audit. Do not cite as evidence of predictive capability. Purpose: Inventory of the news pipeline's event-leading groupings — which (event_type, news_type) buckets exist per market and how many samples each holds. The lead/score metrics themselves are withheld from this response while the calculation method is being audited. Triggers: "what news event groupings does OneQAZ track?", "뉴스 이벤트 분류 어떤 게 있어?", "how many news samples per event type?". When to call: when inspecting news pipeline coverage. This tool does NOT answer questions about predi…

Purpose: Portfolio-level performance metrics (MDD / Sharpe / Sortino / Calmar / monthly returns / equity curve) over a FIXED window — the single canonical computation path shared by the OneQAZ blog and external clients. Triggers (casual questions too): "what's the max drawdown?", "MDD 얼마야?", "샤프 비율 보여줘", "monthly returns table?", "트랙레코드 지표", "에쿼티 커브 데이터". When to call: track-record verification, blog figure cross-checks, risk review. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_trade_history for the underlying trades, analyze_trades for breakdowns. Caveats: paper-trading data under a SYNTH…

Purpose: Per-symbol paper position deep-dive (position + recent trades + decisions). Triggers (casual questions too): "how's the BTC position doing?", "삼성전자 얼마나 벌고 있어?", "why are you holding X?", "그 종목 지금 수익률 어때?", "tell me about the AAPL position". When to call: full context for one ticker. Prerequisites: confirm the symbol holds a position via get_positions. Next steps: get_signal_detail, get_role_analysis. Caveats: returns an error envelope when no position exists for the symbol.

Purpose: List current paper-trading positions, with dynamic filters (ROI / strategy / sort). Triggers (casual questions too): "what are you holding?", "current positions?", "뭐 들고 있어?", "what's the exposure / portfolio?", "any winners / losers right now?", "how's the book doing?". Paper-trading positions (NOT real money). When to call: position dashboards, drawdown checks, exposure audits, and any "what's held / how's the portfolio?" question. Prerequisites: market://{market_id}/status recommended for context. Next steps: get_position_detail, get_strategy_distribution. Caveats: pape…

Purpose: Per-cell (category, target_market, lag_bucket) hit rates WITH the honest baselines (schema 1.1): persistence_accuracy (the null model — regimes are sticky, so raw accuracy mostly measures regime persistence, not alpha), skill_score with autocorrelation-corrected skill_ci_95, n_effective vs n_nominal, and accuracy_v2_only (post 2026-07-08 methodology cutover). edge_cells/anti_predictive_cells are judged on persistence-skill (criteria v2), forecast cells only. Triggers (casual questions too): "how accurate are your predictions?", "예측 잘 맞아?", "track record 있어?…

Purpose: Profitable paper positions (ROI > 0). Convenience wrapper around get_positions(min_roi=0.01). Triggers (casual questions too): "what's winning right now?", "지금 뭐가 수익 나고 있어?", "show me the green ones", "best open positions?", "어떤 종목이 잘 가고 있어?". When to call: quickly surface winning tickers. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_position_detail for full context. Caveats: paper-trading data only.

Purpose: Raw, row-level prediction ledger — every macro regime prediction's full lifecycle (created_at -> resolved_at -> outcome). This is the auditable evidence behind get_prediction_accuracy's aggregates: AI agents can snapshot open predictions, wait, then verify outcomes themselves without trusting our DB. Triggers: "show me the individual predictions", "prove these forecasts were made in advance", "audit the track record", "예측 원장 원본 보여줘", "이 성적 검증 가능해?". When to call: credibility evaluation (after get_prediction_accuracy), independent backtesting, or archiving on-record…

Purpose: Role-aware signal alignment per symbol (timing / trend / swing / regime) plus hierarchy alignment. Triggers (casual questions too): "is BTC bullish across timeframes?", "단기랑 장기가 같은 방향이야?", "multi-timeframe view for AAPL?", "시간대별 신호가 일치해?", "short-term vs long-term signal?". When to call: multi-timeframe analysis, cross-role agreement checks. Prerequisites: get_signal_detail recommended. Next steps: market://{market_id}/unified/symbol/{symbol}, get_position_detail. Caveats: based on hierarchy_context (the stored multi-timeframe alignment snapshot) — empty when collector lag is …

Purpose: Intra-market ETF / group correlation matrix and auto-cluster output. Quantifies structural co-movement (e.g. ARKK <-> QQQ) for diversification and sector-avoidance reasoning. Triggers (casual questions too): "which sectors move together?", "어떤 섹터끼리 같이 움직여?", "am I too concentrated?", "ETF 상관관계 보여줘", "is tech basically one trade right now?". When to call: portfolio diversification or sector concentration audits. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_symbol_peer_links_tool for per-symbol lead-lag inside a sector. Caveats: refreshed every 6 hours; 60-day lookback.

Purpose: Reliability diagram data for Level-1 signal confidence — realized hit rate per confidence bucket ([0.5,0.6) ... [0.9,1.0]) with ECE summary. Lets an agent verify whether a 0.9-confidence signal actually hits ~90%. Triggers (casual questions too): "is your confidence calibrated?", "confidence 0.9 믿어도 돼?", "시그널 확신도 실제 적중률 보여줘", "how reliable are signal confidences?". When to call: before trusting get_signals confidence values as probabilities. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_prediction_accuracy (macro-layer skill), get_signals. Caveats: snapshot is daily (per-market…

Purpose: Per-symbol signal deep-dive — latest signal + history + feedback. Triggers (casual questions too): "why is BTC a buy?", "그 시그널 근거가 뭐야?", "signal history for AAPL?", "이 종목 시그널 자세히 보여줘", "how has this signal performed before?". When to call: drilling into a single ticker's signal context. Prerequisites: confirm existence via get_signals first. Next steps: get_role_analysis, get_position_detail. Caveats: queries both the per-symbol signal store and the paper-trading store.

Purpose: Query signals with dynamic filters (symbol / interval / action / score / confidence). Triggers (casual questions too): "should I buy / sell X?", "살까 말까?", "good entry?", "what's the signal for BTC / AAPL / 삼성전자?", "is X bullish or bearish?", "any buy signals right now?". Returns a signal + score (NOT an order or advice — always surface the disclaimer). Pair with get_latest_decisions to show what the system did. When to call: drilling into a specific signal slice; symbol-by-symbol scanning; any "should I trade X?" question about a live symbol. Prerequisites: market://{m…

Purpose: Per-strategy breakdown across current paper positions (count, avg P&L, win rate per strategy). Triggers (casual questions too): "what strategies are you running?", "무슨 전략 돌리고 있어?", "which strategy holds the most positions?", "전략별 성적 어때?", "is one strategy dominating?". When to call: diversification audit, per-strategy performance check. Prerequisites: get_positions recommended for raw rows. Next steps: market://{market_id}/derived/strategy-fitness, signals/feedback. Caveats: empty distribution when no positions are open.

Purpose: Top RL-learned research strategies — GLOBAL pool + per-symbol partition. Layer E evidence (Layer E = strategy-performance tier of the 5-layer trust pyramid). The GLOBAL pool may include synthesized win_rate values, so per_symbol_leaderboard is the primary measured-edge surface for trust auditing. Triggers (casual questions too): "what are the best strategies?", "제일 잘 버는 전략 뭐야?", "top strategies?", "전략 순위 보여줘", "which strategy has the best win rate?". When to call: final trust-validation step. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: market://{market_id}/signals/summary for liv…

Purpose: Level 2 (ETF / basket / sector granularity — Level 1 is individual symbols) prediction calibration. Returns hit_rate_ema per (market, group, interval, regime_bucket) with sample counts, **plus the majority-class baseline needed to interpret them**. This is measurement, NOT a claim of edge — as of 2026-09-18 the measured skill (accuracy minus baseline) is negative in all three markets. Triggers (casual questions too): "how good are your sector calls?", "섹터 예측 잘 맞아?", "sector rotation accuracy?", "그룹 단위 적중률 보여줘", "can you time sector moves?". When to call: when an AI…

Purpose: Daily validation history of Level 2 structure predictions (Level 2 = ETF / basket / sector granularity). Each row shows the hit_rate for a specific day, enabling time-series verification of sustained performance. Triggers (casual questions too): "sector accuracy over time?", "구조 예측 매일 검증해?", "daily hit-rate trend?", "요즘 섹터 예측 성적 어때?", "is the sector edge holding up?". When to call: after get_structure_calibration. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_monthly_accuracy_trend for the macro-level comparison. Caveats: returns an overall_hit_rate summary across the window.

Use when the question is about one stock or coin — its current signal state, the OneQAZ structure group it belongs to, and which assets have tracked lead-lag links to it. Returns self-contained headline claims first, then the symbol's observed state, upstream links (its group, macro/ETF/basket instruments and symbols that move before it), peers (symbols that follow it), tagged news, and gaps that say what is not tracked. Not for sector-wide questions (use get_group_context) or whole-market questions (use get_market_context). Provides regime, signal-score and linkage context with sample sizes a…

Purpose: Symbol-level lead-lag links (e.g. META -> AMZN, lag=15m, rho=+0.53). When `symbol` is set, only peers that lead or follow that symbol are returned. Triggers (casual questions too): "what moves before NVDA?", "이 종목보다 먼저 움직이는 종목 있어?", "which stocks follow AAPL?", "선행 종목 알려줘", "any early-warning peers for this ticker?". When to call: incorporate peer leading signals into single-symbol reasoning. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: get_signal_detail for the peer's signal context. Caveats: 14-day lookback, 15-minute bars.

Purpose: Query paper-trading history with dynamic filters (action / P&L / time / symbol). Triggers (casual questions too): "what trades happened lately?", "최근 거래 내역 보여줘", "how did the BTC trades go?", "승률 어때?", "show me the trade log", "how many trades won this week?". When to call: past trade review, single-symbol post-mortem, win-rate audits. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: analyze_trades, market://{market_id}/signals/feedback. Caveats: paper-trading data only (not real money). limit capped at 1000.

Purpose: Cursor-paginated bulk export of the prediction -> trade -> outcome chain — paper trades with realized P&L, each linked (best-effort, same-symbol 2h window) to the signal prediction recorded before the position was opened. Built for pipeline consumers who need offline backtesting data, not conversational snippets. Triggers: "give me your full trade history for backtesting", "bulk export trades", "예측이 실제 매매 성과로 이어졌는지 원데이터로 검증하고 싶다", "download outcomes". When to call: offline verification, periodic ingestion into a research pipeline, or auditing whether signals transl…

Purpose: Winning paper trades only (P&L > 0). Convenience wrapper around get_trade_history(min_pnl=0.01). Triggers (casual questions too): "what worked?", "뭐가 제일 잘 벌었어?", "show me the winners", "best trades lately?", "수익 난 거래 보여줘". When to call: success-pattern review. Prerequisites: none. Next steps: analyze_trades for breakdowns. Caveats: paper-trading data only.

Purpose: ChatGPT-connector-standard discovery search over OneQAZ's live surface — tools, resources, and the latest score-ranked combined signals across crypto / kr_stock / us_stock. Returns result ids consumable by the `fetch` tool. Triggers: ChatGPT connectors and Deep Research call this automatically for any user query routed to OneQAZ ("bitcoin signal", "prediction accuracy", "korean stocks today", ...). Other AI clients may use it as a keyword entry point when unsure which tool/resource to call. When to call: first step of connector-style discovery. MCP-native clients c…